Ⅰ 養老金,公積金用英文怎麼說
養老金pension,retirement fund
公積金housing public accumulation fund
另:
醫療金:medical fund,welfare fund
失業金:unemployment fund
我們上口譯課時,老師講的.
Ⅱ 新聞熱詞:「養老金」英語怎麼說
pension
英 [ˈpenʃn]
美 [ˈpɛnʃən]
n.
退休來金自,養老金; 膳宿費; 生活津貼; 寄宿學校;
vt.
發給…養老金[退休金]; 准予退休,強迫退休(並發給退休金);
[例句]A flexible retirement age is
being considered by Ministers to unify men's and women's pension rights
大臣們正在考慮一個靈活的退休年齡機制,這樣可以把男性和女性的養老金權益統一起來。
Ⅲ 求關於經濟方面的英文文獻以及翻譯成中文
INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world』s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China』s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
過去一年的大部分時間里,高速發展的新興國家一直在遠處觀望著西方國家的金融風暴。他們的銀行僅持有少量抵押資產,而類似的資產已經破壞了發達國家的金融公司。商品出口商因為原材料的高價格而日漸富有。中國不可抗拒的經濟力量已然開啟,而且信貸刺激的內需從布達佩斯到巴西利亞都表現得非常充足。盡管大蕭條後關於西方國家受難於金融崩塌的話題與日俱增,但新興國家似乎距離金融風暴的中心還有一段距離。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world』s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不過目前的情況不再是那樣了,隨著境外資本的流失和經濟信心的消失,新興國家股市暴跌(有些地區已經腰斬),本幣迅速貶值。由於外國銀行突然中斷貸款,並且收縮了包括貿易信貸在內的基礎銀行服務,新興國家的信貸市場突發混亂,並引發了一場浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services instry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks』 debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新興國家的政府和發達國家的政府一樣都在為控制損失程度而奮斗。不過對於外匯儲備充足的國家來說難度會小一些:俄羅斯斥資2200億美元重振金融服務行業;韓國政府擔保了1000億美元的銀行債務。而那些儲備並不充足的國家正在四處求援:匈牙利成功向歐洲央行求得了50億歐元(約66億美元)的生命線,同時也在同國際貨幣基金組織協商借款事宜,同時向國際貨幣基金組織求援的還有烏克蘭。近一打兒的國家在向基金組織求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China』s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持續問題的國家正棋行險招:阿根廷正在將私人養老金國有化,意圖阻止違約的發生。即使強有力的國家也表現出虛弱一面:本周公布的數字表明今年中國的增長率在第三季度減緩為9%,雖然增速還算快,但是與近些年的兩位數增率相比緩慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
對信貸沒興趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
眾多新興經濟的意願並不相同,但是累計在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現將會決定世界經濟所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經濟增長中,新興經濟貢獻了75%。但是他們的經濟命運也會有一些政治後果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today』s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在類似東歐的很多地區,金融混亂目前的打擊目標是軟弱的政府;但強硬的政權同樣會嘗到苦果。一些專家認為中國每年需要7%的增長率來阻止社會動盪的發生。總體來說,如此爭端必將影響全球經濟一體化的討論。與以往數次新興經濟危機不同,這次的混亂始於發達國家,很大程度上要歸咎於一體化的資本市場。一旦新興經濟崩潰,無論是貨幣危機還是劇烈的經濟蕭條,大家對於金融全球化是否屬明智之舉會有更多的質疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸運的是上述恐怖的場景沒有發生在全球的每個角落:所有的新興經濟都會減緩發展速度,有一些也必將面臨深度蕭條;但是更多的國家在面臨當下危機的時候卻擁有比以往任何時候都強壯的形式,用充足的儲備、彈性的貨幣和強大的預算武裝自己。新興國家及發達國家良好的政策可以避免大災難的發生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world』s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一個原因值得抱有希望:發達國家此次災難的直接經濟影響還是在可控的范圍內。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊,特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品價格走低:原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經下降了60%,很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現象有混合效果:盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品(能源)出口企業備受打擊,但卻幫助了亞洲的商品(能源)進口商,並且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕,也很脆弱;不過由於過去極度的繁榮,商品價格下跌目前還不會引發大范圍傳播的危機。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China』s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發生在金融領域。由於資產價格的下降,財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例,目前已經開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費者比發達國家的負債水平低很多,上述情況還是會挫傷國內的經濟信心。在其他方面,國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場,這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發達的信貸曾經強力支撐國內支出那樣,信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world』s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers』 group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是,沖擊的表現會因國家的不同而有所區別。多虧中國和海灣產油國經常項目下的巨額順差,新型經濟整體還不斷的向發達國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經超過GDP的5%,其中的多數是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家;不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對於類似土耳其和南非的國家來說,突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進行大幅調整。東歐的情況特別令人擔憂,那裡的不少國家赤字水平已經達到了兩位數。另外,象俄羅斯這樣處於順差的國家,其銀行也逐漸適應了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款,原因自然是全球金融一體化。發達國家的救助計劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平,但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會減慢。國際金融研協會預測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飛行之翼與祈禱者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信貸緊縮必將令人生畏,不過多數新興市場可以躲過一劫,最大的市場形勢還相當不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以(也應該)得到幫助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country』s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China』s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些堅強的巨人中,中國卓然不群:手握2萬億美元的儲備,經常項下的順差狀態,與國外銀行罕有關聯,過剩的預算給推動支出留有足夠空間。鑒於國家領導人已經明確表示將不惜一切代價為經濟增長減速緩沖,中國的經濟增長應該會減緩到大約8%的水平,但是決不會崩潰。雖然這不足以挽救世界經濟,但是該增長率將會為商品價格建底並幫到新興世界的其他國家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil』s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的經濟大國會受到更大的沖擊,不過應該可以禁受住風暴侵襲。印度的財政赤字巨大,巴西很多公司面臨巨大的外匯風險。但巴西經濟已經實現多樣化,同時上述兩個國家擁有充足的儲備來平穩過渡到緩慢的增長。俄羅斯掌握著5500億美元的儲備,應該能夠阻止對盧布的搶購。至少在短期內,小國家才是最弱不禁風的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America』s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will l them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到緊縮信貸壓力進行的調整必然帶來痛苦,但快速的國際援助是明智之舉,因為這會讓結果很不相同。一些新興國家已經向美聯儲求援以緩解流動性問題;有一些則希望中國可以拯救他們與水火。更佳的求救路線莫過於國際貨幣基金組織,因為它掌握大量的專門知識和2500億美元的可出借款項。不幸的是人們認為向基金借款有辱其名,國際貨幣基金組織應該推出更快捷、更靈活的金融工具,同時實現借貸條件最小化。過去數月中,機敏的決策驅散了發達國家的災難。現在也正是新興世界發生類似事情的時候了。
Ⅳ 關於養老的英文 Social Pension Adjustment 和 Pension Dection
Social Pension Adjustment 正像前面兩位大俠所說,是調整的意思。比如,每年報稅(tax report)時,養老金是按照你的年收內入計算的,有的人已經容在發工資的時扣掉了,但是,報稅的時候如果你還有其他收入來源,而這時的養老金數就要重新計算,因為你的總收入變了。你計算的數字如果和國家稅務局的不一樣,他們會告訴你有adjustment,即重新調整了計算數字。
Pension Dection 一般指前面講的在發工資時的扣除。比如你的月工資應該是3000,但是等你拿到工資單,你會發現你知拿到2500,扣除了許多,其中有一項就應該是pension。當然也會有其他的扣除項目。
Ⅳ ipc的刊物
IPC中國投資與養老金
IPC是Investment & Pension of China(中國投資與養老金)的縮寫。
《中國投資與養老金》雜志(IPC)是《歐洲投資與養老金》(IPE)傳媒集團下《亞洲投資與養老金》雜志(IPA)在中國的延伸版。IPE是一家在國際養老金和投資領域享有盛名的英文專業雜志和電子出版商。
IPC有著一支國內外優先養老金及投資專家組成的顧問團,我們擁有一流的采編及撰稿團隊,為養老金與投資行業從業人員提供准確及時的行業動態信息、專家見解和市場分析,同時從IPE和IPA轉載對中國最具參考價值報道,幫助從業人員了解海內外最新動態,以更廣闊的視野看待養老金與投資行業的發展。
IPC通過雜志、電子新聞通訊、網站、IPC論壇(就不同專題為從業人員設計的研討會和專家討論會)等豐富多彩的形式,為資產擁有者、金融從業人員、監管機構、投資顧問行業和學界人士服務。同時,為中國和國際養老金業所有相關人士提供一信息交流和觀點分享的平台。
IPC中文網站信息由我們在中國和世界各地的采編團隊提供,囊括所有關於養老金及投資的新聞報道、IPC雜志電子版、法律法規、研究報告和數據信息。
Ⅵ 幫我找幾個法條名稱的英文原文(英國的)--高分
1.1601 《伊麗莎白濟貧法》(《舊濟貧法》)——The Elizabeth Poor Law
英國1601年頒發的《伊麗莎白濟貧法》是西方最早以法律形式確定的社會救助措施。
2.牧區濟貧稅法——Parish Poor Rate
也是1601年頒布的
3.1722 濟貧法——1772 Poor Law
1722年濟貧法授權教區或教區團體設立貧民習藝所,收容一部分貧民,供給食宿的同時,給予技能上的訓練。
4.1795 濟貧法——1795 Poor Law
包括兩個方面:日常飲食改革;「斯賓漢姆蘭制度」(Speenhamland Act of Parliament)
5.1905 《失業工人法》——Unemployed Workman Act
6.1908 《養老金法》——Old age pensions
7.1911 《健康保險法》——National Insurance Act
9.1948 《國民救助法》——National Assistance Act
貧民救濟法,濟貧法(英國1947年頒布 National Assistance Act (國民救助法)後予以廢除)
1.1662 (Settlement Acts)《定居法》
2.1795 《貧民遷移法》——Poor Removal Act 1795
3.1846 《貧民遷移法(修正案)》——Poor Removal Act (Amendment)
4.1865 《聯盟負擔法》——Union Chargeability Act
Ⅶ 英文文獻翻譯
在退休之後的費用
在退休之後的費用,也提及如凈余的周期在退休之後的利益費用,是僱主的年度在退休之後的利益費用, 有用來計算年金費用的許多熟悉成份。 凈余周期的在退休之後的利益費用的成份是依下列各項。
1. 服務花費。 EPBO 的部分在此期間對職員服務歸於了。
2. 興趣花費。 APBO 的增加可歸於到時間的通道。 它被藉由應用開始 -- 那 - 年貼現率到開始計算 --那-年 APBO,調整了讓利益付款在此期間被做。貼現率在被修理的高質量上以回返的比率為基礎-現在可得的收入投資。8
3.在計劃資產上的真實的回返。 在計劃的資產的公平價值方面的改變在此期間為貢獻和利益付款調整了訂定。因為在退休之後的費用在計劃上被為增益或者損失收費或者記入貸方當-之時設定 (那不同在那之間真實的和預期的回返), 這一個成份是真的預期回返。
4. 之前服務費用的分期償還。 起因於計劃改善或發生的計劃開始的反動利益的費用的分期償還在陳述 106 號奏效之後。 典型的分期償還時期,從計劃改善的日期開始, 整個充足的適任日期是剩餘的服務期數。
5.增益和損失。大體上, 在起因於在假定方面的改變的 APBO 中或者從假定的不同於的經驗改變。 對於贊助的計劃,這一個成份也在計劃資產上包括真實的回返和預期的回返之間的不同。 (計算相同於對於退休金--真實的基於公平的價值和預期的基於市場講的價值) 增益或損失能立刻被辨認出或者能以為退休金會計與那二手者類似的 " 走廊方式 " 為基礎。
6.轉變義務的分期償還。 未被認識 APBO 的直線分期償還當 FASB 陳述 106 號被採用的時候。 如果轉變義務立刻被辨認出,費用的這一個成份不是存在。
轉變數量
在 FASB 陳述 106 號的年的採用的開始,轉變數量 (義務或資產) 被計算如 APBO 和計劃資產的公平價值之間的不同, 加上任何的被自然增加的義務或比較不任何預付的費用 (資產) 。
因為大多數的計劃被不贊助和大多數的僱主正在自然增加在退休之後的利益第一次花費, 大的轉變義務發生。
Ⅷ 離退休人員基本養老金英文怎麼說
離退休人員基本養老金
Basic old age pension for retired persons
Ⅸ 養老保險英語怎麼說
養老 保險 ,全稱社會基本養老保險,是國家和社會根據一定的法律和法規,為解決勞動者在達到國家規定的解除勞動義務的勞動年齡界限,或因年老喪失勞動能力退出勞動崗位後的基本生活而建立的一種社會保險制度。那麼你知道養老保險用英語怎麼說嗎?下面和我一起來學習一下養老保險的英語說法吧。
養老保險的英語說法1:
endowment insurance
養老保險的英語說法2:
pension insurance
養老保險相關英語表達:
養老保險體系 endowment insurance system
農村養老保險制度 rural endowment insurance system
商業養老保險 commercial endowment insurance
養老保險基金 pension insurance fund
多層次養老保險制度 Multi-tier Pension System
養老保險制度改革 old-age insurance system reform
養老保險的英語例句:
1. One of the most important changes concerns the investment of pension contributions.
最重要的一個變化涉及養老保險基金的投資。
2. What is the development direction of endowment insurance system?
養老保險制度的發展方向是什麼?
3. Why should build system of rural society endowment insurance?
為什麼要建立農村社會養老保險制度?
4. The government plans to extend coverage basic life insurance in society.
國家打算擴大基本社會養老保險的覆蓋面.
5. Rund 85 Prozent der Rentenleistungen stammen aus der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung.
在整個養老金的支付中,法定養老保險的比重平均為85%,個人的自我保障佔10%,而企業補充養老保險只佔養老保障的5%.
6. The enterprise annuity is a kind of enterprise system for employees.
企業年金是指企業為員工舉辦的補充養老保險.
7. Ask: What is the suitable scope that I save social endowment insurance?
問: 我省社會養老保險的適用范圍是什麼?
8. Social endowment insurance points to primary endowment insurance namely.
社會養老保險即指基本養老保險.
9. Does account of endowment insurance indivial store is the forehead successive?
養老保險個人帳戶儲存額是否可以繼續?
10. Chapter four, the basic pension insurance analyzing regional differences into reasons.
第四章, 剖析區域基本養老保險差異性成的原因.
11. You can inquire online endowment insurance code on above net.
你可以上網上查詢有關的養老保險法規呀.
12. You will be entitled to supplementary pension fund and housing fund.
您有權參加補充養老保險基金和住房基金.
13. Policy of social endowment insurance had in the country.
在農村進行了社會養老保險政策.
14. In the meantime, encourage build enterprise annuity and indivial deposIt'sex endowment insurance.
同時, 鼓勵建立企業年金和個人儲蓄性養老保險.
15. Endowment insurance system is the key content of social security system.
養老保險制度是社會保障制度的重要內容.
Ⅹ 急求:經濟類3000字左右英文文獻(帶翻譯更好)!~~
INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world』s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China』s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
過去一年的大部分時間里,高速發展的新興國家一直在遠處觀望著西方國家的金融風暴。他們的銀行僅持有少量抵押資產,而類似的資產已經破壞了發達國家的金融公司。商品出口商因為原材料的高價格而日漸富有。中國不可抗拒的經濟力量已然開啟,而且信貸刺激的內需從布達佩斯到巴西利亞都表現得非常充足。盡管大蕭條後關於西方國家受難於金融崩塌的話題與日俱增,但新興國家似乎距離金融風暴的中心還有一段距離。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world』s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不過目前的情況不再是那樣了,隨著境外資本的流失和經濟信心的消失,新興國家股市暴跌(有些地區已經腰斬),本幣迅速貶值。由於外國銀行突然中斷貸款,並且收縮了包括貿易信貸在內的基礎銀行服務,新興國家的信貸市場突發混亂,並引發了一場浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services instry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks』 debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新興國家的政府和發達國家的政府一樣都在為控制損失程度而奮斗。不過對於外匯儲備充足的國家來說難度會小一些:俄羅斯斥資2200億美元重振金融服務行業;韓國政府擔保了1000億美元的銀行債務。而那些儲備並不充足的國家正在四處求援:匈牙利成功向歐洲央行求得了50億歐元(約66億美元)的生命線,同時也在同國際貨幣基金組織協商借款事宜,同時向國際貨幣基金組織求援的還有烏克蘭。近一打兒的國家在向基金組織求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China』s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持續問題的國家正棋行險招:阿根廷正在將私人養老金國有化,意圖阻止違約的發生。即使強有力的國家也表現出虛弱一面:本周公布的數字表明今年中國的增長率在第三季度減緩為9%,雖然增速還算快,但是與近些年的兩位數增率相比緩慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
對信貸沒興趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
眾多新興經濟的意願並不相同,但是累計在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現將會決定世界經濟所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經濟增長中,新興經濟貢獻了75%。但是他們的經濟命運也會有一些政治後果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today』s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在類似東歐的很多地區,金融混亂目前的打擊目標是軟弱的政府;但強硬的政權同樣會嘗到苦果。一些專家認為中國每年需要7%的增長率來阻止社會動盪的發生。總體來說,如此爭端必將影響全球經濟一體化的討論。與以往數次新興經濟危機不同,這次的混亂始於發達國家,很大程度上要歸咎於一體化的資本市場。一旦新興經濟崩潰,無論是貨幣危機還是劇烈的經濟蕭條,大家對於金融全球化是否屬明智之舉會有更多的質疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸運的是上述恐怖的場景沒有發生在全球的每個角落:所有的新興經濟都會減緩發展速度,有一些也必將面臨深度蕭條;但是更多的國家在面臨當下危機的時候卻擁有比以往任何時候都強壯的形式,用充足的儲備、彈性的貨幣和強大的預算武裝自己。新興國家及發達國家良好的政策可以避免大災難的發生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world』s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一個原因值得抱有希望:發達國家此次災難的直接經濟影響還是在可控的范圍內。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊,特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品價格走低:原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經下降了60%,很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現象有混合效果:盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品(能源)出口企業備受打擊,但卻幫助了亞洲的商品(能源)進口商,並且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕,也很脆弱;不過由於過去極度的繁榮,商品價格下跌目前還不會引發大范圍傳播的危機。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China』s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發生在金融領域。由於資產價格的下降,財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例,目前已經開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費者比發達國家的負債水平低很多,上述情況還是會挫傷國內的經濟信心。在其他方面,國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場,這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發達的信貸曾經強力支撐國內支出那樣,信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world』s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers』 group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是,沖擊的表現會因國家的不同而有所區別。多虧中國和海灣產油國經常項目下的巨額順差,新型經濟整體還不斷的向發達國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經超過GDP的5%,其中的多數是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家;不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對於類似土耳其和南非的國家來說,突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進行大幅調整。東歐的情況特別令人擔憂,那裡的不少國家赤字水平已經達到了兩位數。另外,象俄羅斯這樣處於順差的國家,其銀行也逐漸適應了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款,原因自然是全球金融一體化。發達國家的救助計劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平,但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會減慢。國際金融研協會預測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飛行之翼與祈禱者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信貸緊縮必將令人生畏,不過多數新興市場可以躲過一劫,最大的市場形勢還相當不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以(也應該)得到幫助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country』s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China』s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些堅強的巨人中,中國卓然不群:手握2萬億美元的儲備,經常項下的順差狀態,與國外銀行罕有關聯,過剩的預算給推動支出留有足夠空間。鑒於國家領導人已經明確表示將不惜一切代價為經濟增長減速緩沖,中國的經濟增長應該會減緩到大約8%的水平,但是決不會崩潰。雖然這不足以挽救世界經濟,但是該增長率將會為商品價格建底並幫到新興世界的其他國家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil』s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的經濟大國會受到更大的沖擊,不過應該可以禁受住風暴侵襲。印度的財政赤字巨大,巴西很多公司面臨巨大的外匯風險。但巴西經濟已經實現多樣化,同時上述兩個國家擁有充足的儲備來平穩過渡到緩慢的增長。俄羅斯掌握著5500億美元的儲備,應該能夠阻止對盧布的搶購。至少在短期內,小國家才是最弱不禁風的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America』s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will l them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到緊縮信貸壓力進行的調整必然帶來痛苦,但快速的國際援助是明智之舉,因為這會讓結果很不相同。一些新興國家已經向美聯儲求援以緩解流動性問題;有一些則希望中國可以拯救他們與水火。更佳的求救路線莫過於國際貨幣基金組織,因為它掌握大量的專門知識和2500億美元的可出借款項。不幸的是人們認為向基金借款有辱其名,國際貨幣基金組織應該推出更快捷、更靈活的金融工具,同時實現借貸條件最小化。過去數月中,機敏的決策驅散了發達國家的災難。現在也正是新興世界發生類似事情的時候了。
補充:economics上的文章